Year: 2020

Predicting a draw in soccer is very different from picking a match winner. There are many factors to consider. Some of which you might already know. Others are not so obvious. In this article, we want to give you four tips that you must consider when picking a draw match. These tips will ensure you a long term success in picking draws in soccer.

1. Stay away from favorite vs underdog

This is very straight forward. Matches between favorite and underdog rarely end in draws. The vast difference in two teams’ quality makes it hard for a draw in soccer. Instead, you want to look for matches between teams of similar quality.

The best way is to find a match in which the home team is ranked lower than the away team. You can use our ranking tables to find where each team stands in a particular league. Because of home advantage, a home team of lesser quality will have a bigger boost; thus, bringing the two teams to even closer in quality. More often than not, both teams will be happy to walk away with a draw.

2. Look for teams with low scoring stats

Low scoring teams have a tendency to end their matches in a draw. It gets even better if you could find low scoring teams with good defensive records. These teams don’t win often but they also do not concede much either. It is best to bet on a draw when two low scoring teams with good defense play against each other. These matches will usually end with 0-0 or 1-1.

A quick way to find these matches is to look for games with low odds on under 2.5 goals. Some leagues have more under 2.5 goals matches than others. For instance, more than 53% in all of France League 1 matches are under 2.5 goals. On the other hands, 65% of all Bundesliga matches are over 2.5 goals. We put together a table below for your reference:

3. Check previous head-to-head stats for draw in soccer matches

You can look for previous head-to-head stats between the two teams for things such as:

• How many times did they play against each other? Look for recent data because it is a better indicator of the current teams’ form and condition.
• How many times did their game end in a draw. The higher this number, the better it is to end up with a draw in soccer. Take a look at the example below:

4. Identify a team risk vs reward

It is true that more draw matches happen at the end of a season, in the last leg of a group competition or in friendly games before an important tournament. Teams don’t always play to win. Depend on a club’s long term goal, a manager will decide whether to approach a game aggressively or conservatively. After all, there is not need to take too much risk if the reward is not adequate.

It is wise to follow the news before each game, and to confirm both team formations before making your bet. As they can give great info on how both managers want to approach the game. If both teams choose to play defensive formations, there is a great chance that the match will end in a draw. In addition, if key attackers are not in the teams’ starting formations for whatever reasons, the match will most likely has less goals.

We have put together a short list of today most popular formations and their playing styles. You can check them out here.

So you just started betting on soccer and you are wondering how others make money with this sport. The truth is it in’t easy.  If you want to be a professional bettor, I highly recommend to read at least one of the books I had listed in Best Sport Betting Books . However, if you are just looking for some quick tips to increase your chance of winning,  these are the three simple soccer betting tips that I often use. They will come in handy when you are in doubt.

1. Simple Soccer Betting Tip #1 – The Law of Averaging (Betting to Win in A Long Run)

Betting is a game of average. You can be a really good predictor with an excellent analytical skill, but if you approach betting as a gambler, chances are you will loose all of your stake before you even know it. Professional gamblers treat betting as an investment. They only bet on matches with fair odds to ensure that in a LONG RUN, they will become profitable.

I read multiple explanations about fair odds, but they are just fuzzy to me. I prefer seeing fair odds as a 1:1 risk and reward. I trade stocks as a hobby and so risk and reward make more sense to me. Since the topic to this post is to discuss three SIMPLE tips to revolutionize your soccer predictions, I rather keep things simple.

So, Simple Tip #1: Only bet on matches with a 1:1 risk to reward ratio. What that means is that if you spend $10 on a single bet, you should be able to make $10 if you win (not $9, $10). This way, even if you are an average bettor like myself with a winning rate of 60%, you can still make a profit in a long run.

2. Simple Soccer Betting Tip #2 – When in Doubt, Bet on Home Favorite

This is one of the simplest soccer betting tips. Imagine you are looking at an upcoming match between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. Manchester United is the home team. You comb through countless of statistics and still you can’t decide which team to put your hard-earned money for. This is the perfect scenario to use the second tip – when in doubt, bet on home favorite. According to  Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams, author of Betting to Win, betting on home favorite yields an average of 60% winning rate over time. What that means is that you can will roughly 6 out of 10 matches betting on home favorite.

I personally have tried this tip in my betting and can confirm that it actually works.

3. Tip #3 – Look for Odds Shortening Matches.

What is odds shortening? According to Gruss Software, “Odds shortening refers to the chance of something happening becoming more likely. In betting terms, this means the reduction of odds, e.g: from 10/1 down to 5/1 or a similar reduction.”

For example: There is a match between Manchester United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers F.C on Saturday.

• On Friday: you check out the odds from your bookmaker and notice that Manchester United has a 10/1 betting odd if you pick Manchester United (-0.5) to WIN.
• On Saturday: you go back to your bookmaker site and notice that the previous odd has changed. The same 10/1 odd is now for Man United (-1.0) to WIN. Or sometimes, you will see a reduction from 10/1 to 8/1, etc…

This usually signals that the chance of Manchester United to win has increased. In this case, it is generally safe to pick Manchester United (-1.0) to WIN.

This technique requires you to constantly monitor the market to find odds shortening matches. An easier way to go about this is to use our odds shortening table.