How to predict a draw in soccer with our four tips?

Predicting a draw in soccer is very different from picking a match winner. There are many factors to consider. Some of which you might already know. Others are not so obvious. In this article, we want to give you four tips that you must consider when picking a draw match. These tips will ensure you a long term success in picking draws in soccer.

1. Stay away from favorite vs underdog

This is very straight forward. Matches between favorite and underdog rarely end in draws. The vast difference in two teams’ quality makes it hard for a draw in soccer. Instead, you want to look for matches between teams of similar quality.

The best way is to find a match in which the home team is ranked lower than the away team. You can use our ranking tables to find where each team stands in a particular league. Because of home advantage, a home team of lesser quality will have a bigger boost; thus, bringing the two teams to even closer in quality. More often than not, both teams will be happy to walk away with a draw.

2. Look for teams with low scoring stats

Low scoring teams have a tendency to end their matches in a draw. It gets even better if you could find low scoring teams with good defensive records. These teams don’t win often but they also do not concede much either. It is best to bet on a draw when two low scoring teams with good defense play against each other. These matches will usually end with 0-0 or 1-1.

A quick way to find these matches is to look for games with low odds on under 2.5 goals. Some leagues have more under 2.5 goals matches than others. For instance, more than 53% in all of France League 1 matches are under 2.5 goals. On the other hands, 65% of all Bundesliga matches are over 2.5 goals. We put together a table below for your reference:

3. Check previous head-to-head stats for draw in soccer matches

You can look for previous head-to-head stats between the two teams for things such as:

  • How many times did they play against each other? Look for recent data because it is a better indicator of the current teams’ form and condition.
  • How many times did their game end in a draw. The higher this number, the better it is to end up with a draw in soccer. Take a look at the example below:

draw in soccer stats

4. Identify a team risk vs reward

It is true that more draw matches happen at the end of a season, in the last leg of a group competition or in friendly games before an important tournament. Teams don’t always play to win. Depend on a club’s long term goal, a manager will decide whether to approach a game aggressively or conservatively. After all, there is not need to take too much risk if the reward is not adequate.

It is wise to follow the news before each game, and to confirm both team formations before making your bet. As they can give great info on how both managers want to approach the game. If both teams choose to play defensive formations, there is a great chance that the match will end in a draw. In addition, if key attackers are not in the teams’ starting formations for whatever reasons, the match will most likely has less goals.

We have put together a short list of today most popular formations and their playing styles. You can check them out here.

3 Simple Soccer Betting Tips for Beginners

So you just started betting on soccer and you are wondering how others make money with this sport. The truth is it in’t easy.  If you want to be a professional bettor, I highly recommend to read at least one of the books I had listed in Best Sport Betting Books . However, if you are just looking for some quick tips to increase your chance of winning,  these are the three simple soccer betting tips that I often use. They will come in handy when you are in doubt.

1. Simple Soccer Betting Tip #1 – The Law of Averaging (Betting to Win in A Long Run)

Simple Soccer Betting Tips - Averaging

Betting is a game of average. You can be a really good predictor with an excellent analytical skill, but if you approach betting as a gambler, chances are you will loose all of your stake before you even know it. Professional gamblers treat betting as an investment. They only bet on matches with fair odds to ensure that in a LONG RUN, they will become profitable.

I read multiple explanations about fair odds, but they are just fuzzy to me. I prefer seeing fair odds as a 1:1 risk and reward. I trade stocks as a hobby and so risk and reward make more sense to me. Since the topic to this post is to discuss three SIMPLE tips to revolutionize your soccer predictions, I rather keep things simple.

So, Simple Tip #1: Only bet on matches with a 1:1 risk to reward ratio. What that means is that if you spend $10 on a single bet, you should be able to make $10 if you win (not $9, $10). This way, even if you are an average bettor like myself with a winning rate of 60%, you can still make a profit in a long run.

2. Simple Soccer Betting Tip #2 – When in Doubt, Bet on Home Favorite

This is one of the simplest soccer betting tips. Imagine you are looking at an upcoming match between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. Manchester United is the home team. You comb through countless of statistics and still you can’t decide which team to put your hard-earned money for. This is the perfect scenario to use the second tip – when in doubt, bet on home favorite. According to  Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams, author of Betting to Win, betting on home favorite yields an average of 60% winning rate over time. What that means is that you can will roughly 6 out of 10 matches betting on home favorite.

I personally have tried this tip in my betting and can confirm that it actually works.

3. Tip #3 – Look for Odds Shortening Matches.

What is odds shortening? According to Gruss Software, “Odds shortening refers to the chance of something happening becoming more likely. In betting terms, this means the reduction of odds, e.g: from 10/1 down to 5/1 or a similar reduction.”

For example: There is a match between Manchester United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers F.C on Saturday.

  • On Friday: you check out the odds from your bookmaker and notice that Manchester United has a 10/1 betting odd if you pick Manchester United (-0.5) to WIN.
  • On Saturday: you go back to your bookmaker site and notice that the previous odd has changed. The same 10/1 odd is now for Man United (-1.0) to WIN. Or sometimes, you will see a reduction from 10/1 to 8/1, etc…

This usually signals that the chance of Manchester United to win has increased. In this case, it is generally safe to pick Manchester United (-1.0) to WIN.

This technique requires you to constantly monitor the market to find odds shortening matches. An easier way to go about this is to use our odds shortening table.

Today Soccer Predictions 2/29/2020

A full list of today soccer predictions 2/29/2020 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 29/2/2020 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

Brighton have drawn their last 3 home matches (Premier League).

Borussia Dortmund have scored at least 3 goals in their last 7 home matches (Bundesliga).

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 2/29/2020
Eibar7:00LevanteEibar (0.0)
Brighton & Hove Albion7:30Crystal PalaceBrighton & Hove Albion (0.0)
Lazio9:00BolognaBologna (+1.0)
Augsburg9:30Borussia M’GladbachUnder 3.0
Borussia Dortmund9:30FreiburgBorussia Dortmund (-1.5)
Paris SG
Dijon
1.169.721
Racing Club W
Villa San Carlos W
1.031219
SV Werder Bremen U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.012218.5
FC Bayern München U19
Ulm U19
1.081118.5
1.FC Phonix Lubeck
Eckernforder SV
1.041418
Videoton FC
Kaposvári Rákóczi
1.26.517
Sevan
Ani Yerevan
1.081015.75
Borussia Dortmund
SC Freiburg
1.297.415
UA Zacatecas
Mineros de Fresnillo
1.11915
AEL Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
1.235.513.25
SOCCER TOP HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 2/27/2020
10 WINS
5 LOSSES
0 DRAW
67% WINNING RATE

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Today Soccer Predictions 2/27/2020

A full list of today soccer predictions 2/27/2020 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 27/2/2020 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

Wolves have won 11 of their last 13 matches (Europa League).

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Copenhagen‘s last 8 games (Europa League).

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 2/27/2020
Basel12:55APOEL NicosiaOver 2.5
Espanyol12:55Wolverhampton WanderersOver 2.5
FC Porto12:55Bayer LeverkusenOver 3.0
Gent12:55RomaDRAW
Istanbul Basaksehir12:55Sporting CPIstanbul Basaksehir (0.0)
TODAY BEST 1X2 ODDS
Team1x2
Calavera U19
Nervión U19
1.177.513.75
Antequera
Alhaurín de la Torre
1.196.512
Sevilla
CFR Cluj
1.36511.5
Southern Sporting Union
DMRAO
1.146.510
Inter
Ludogorets
1.454.69.2
Manchester United
Club Brugge KV
1.484.359
Celtic
FC København
1.514.39
El Ejido
Polideportivo Almeria
1.35.258.9
ARA
Kerala Blasters II
1.445.58.2
Al Sadd
Al Arabi
1.335.557.6
SOCCER TOP HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 2/23/2020
8 WINS
5 LOSSES
2 DRAW
62% WINNING RATE

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Today Soccer Predictions 2/6/2020

A full list of today soccer predictions 2/6/2020 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 6/2/2020 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

Reims have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 10 matches against Nice in all competitions.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Montpellier‘s last 8 games (Ligue 1).

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 2/6/2020
Brest13:00BordeauxBrest (0.0)
Lyon13:00AmiensAmiens (+1.0)
Montpellier13:00MetzMontpellier (-0.5)
Nimes13:00DijonUnder 2.5
Reims13:00NiceOver 2.0
TODAY BEST 1X2 ODDS
Team1x2
SSV Ulm 1846
Spfr Dorfmerkingen
1.0316.2556
Vasco da Gama
Oriente Petrolero
1.186.423
Glasgow Rangers
Hibernian
1.198.621
Omonia Nicosia
Doxa
1.166.9519.75
FC Bayern München
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
1.199.819
Gama
Ceilandense
1.137.7519
Al Nasr Riyadh
Al Fateh
1.196.6513
Confiança
America de Pedrinhas
1.186.512
JS Kabylie
NA Hussein Dey
1.41411
Sumqayıt II
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.245.510.25
SOCCER TOP HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 2/1/2020
15 WINS
10 LOSSES
2 DRAW
60% WINNING RATE

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Best Sports Betting Books According to Professional Gamblers

I wish I read at least one of the best sports betting books ten years ago. That was when I placed my first bet with a friend on an English Premier League match. The  bet was for a pack of Bud Light.

Nowadays, I occasionally place a bet on a Sunday match with my close friends or colleagues from work. We are not gamblers but rather sport enthusiasts. We like to place a small bet to increase excitement during a game.

Don’t be like me,  if you consider yourself a serious bettor, below is a list of the best sports betting books for the professionals.

1. Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong (2001-09-06) Paperback – 1783

Best Sports Betting Books
Sharp Sports Betting is a nice overview of sports gambling with a heavy emphasis on American football. It is one of the older books in this list but it is still valuable for today bettors. There is a recurring emphasis on mathematics, which any solid gambling book should have.

2. The Logic Of Sports Betting Paperback – May 17, 2019

Best Sports Betting Books

The Logic of Sports Betting teaches concepts of how to win. In addition to the process, this book teaches about the markets.  The authors explain how the business actually works from the bookmaker’s and bettor’s point of view.

3. Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting Paperback – July 25, 2007

Best Sports Betting Books

Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting is for people who are good with math and numbers The reading is full of good  tips for converting percentage into money lines and vise verse. It contains some very useful knowledge on the financial aspects of sports betting.

4. Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management Paperback – December 1, 2003


Best Sports Betting Books

Fixed Odds Sports Betting helps you identify ‘value’ bets. It does not show you a particular system to follow but rather encourage you to find a system that works for you. It is definitely a must have book for any serious bettors out there.

5. The Man With the $100,000 Breasts And Other Gambling Stories Hardcover – June 1, 1999

Best Sports Betting Books

This book was ranked #2 on the Wall Street Journal’s list of the 5 best books on gambling.

Soccer Bet Buddy is a sport prediction site. We offer FREE soccer predictions, soccer picks and betting tips. We DO NOT offer betting of any kind on our website.

Disclosure: Some of the links in this post are affiliate links and if you go through them to make a purchase I will earn a commission. This helps me maintain the site to continue serving you and other users.

Today Soccer Predictions 1/12/2020

A full list of today soccer predictions 1/12/2020 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 12/1/2020 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of Aston Villa‘s last 16 games (Premier League).

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Nantes‘s last 6 away games (Ligue 1).

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 1/12/2020
Udinese6:30SassuoloUdinese (-0.5)
AFC Bournemouth9:00WatfordUnder 1.5 (First Half)
Saint-Etienne9:00NantesUnder 1.5 (First Half)
Fiorentina9:00SPALFiorentina (-0.5)
Sampdoria9:00BresciaSampdoria (-0.5)
TODAY BEST 1X2 ODDS
Team1x2
Chelsea LFC Women
Bristol City WFC Women
1.0613.541
Apollon Limassol W
Pyrgos Limassol W
1.0312.7525
Nakhon Ratchasima
Master 7
1.118.323
Alcoyano
UD Benigánim
1.19.323
Eastern
BC Rangers
1.11018.75
South China
North District
1.19.417.5
Panathinaikos U19
Panionios U19
1.265.5515.5
Zanaco
Esae FC
1.258.514.5
Sporting CP U19
Sacavenense U19
1.147.814
Paris SG
Monaco
1.258.413.5
SOCCER TOP HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 1/11/2020
10 WINS
5 LOSSES
1 DRAW
67% WINNING RATE

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Today Soccer Predictions 1/11/2020

A full list of today soccer predictions 1/11/2020 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 11/1/2020 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

Liverpool are undefeated in their last 37 matches (Premier League).

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of Aston Villa‘s last 16 games (Premier League).

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 1/11/2020
Crystal Palace7:30ArsenalOver 2.5
Cagliari9:00MilanOver 2.5
Chelsea10:00BurnleyChelsea (-1.0)
Everton10:00Brighton & Hove AlbionOver 2.5
Leicester City10:00SouthamptonOver 2.5
TODAY BEST 1X2 ODDS
Team1X2
Canada
Barbados
1.0910.2531
Manchester City LFC Women
Everton LFC Women
1.19.521
Glentoran
Warrenpoint Town
1.177.517
Chelsea
Burnley
1.31613
Atlético Madrid W
Sporting de Huelva Women
1.068.513
Dhofar
Al Orouba
1.31510.75
Manchester United
Norwich City
1.395.610.2
TP Mazembe
CD Primeiro de Agosto
1.314.7510
FH
IBV
1.226.59.6
Campbelltown City
West Adelaide
1.226.59.5
SOCCER TOP HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 1/5/2020
19 WINS
11 LOSSES
2 DRAW
63% WINNING RATE

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Today Soccer Predictions 1/5/2020

A full list of today soccer predictions 1/5/2020 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 5/1/2020 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Lazio‘s last 11 games (Serie A).

Liverpool are undefeated in their last 23 home matches against Everton in all competitions.

 

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 1/5/2020
Granada6:00MallorcaUnder 2.5
Brescia6:30LazioLazio (-0.5)
Real Sociedad8:00VillarrealOver 2.5
FC Bastia-Borgo8:15Saint-EtienneSaint-Etienne (-0.5)
Lorient8:15BrestLorient (-0.5)
TODAY BEST 1X2 ODDS
Team1x2
Benfica U19
União Leiria U19
1.0120.524.5
Sheffield United
AFC Fylde
1.159.423
Kwai Tsing
Wing Go Fu Moon
1.571323
Manchester United WFC W
Bristol City WFC Women
1.19.520.5
Al Ahly Cairo
Masr
1.176.3519.5
Kano Pillars
Warri Wolves
1.255.9518.5
Ituano u20
Socorrense U20
1.061118.5
Savoia
San Tommaso
1.166.9518
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1.259.516
AEK Athens
Panaitolikos
1.265.816
SOCCER TOP HIGHLIGHTS - 1/4/2020
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR DECEMBER 2019
89 WINS
65 LOSSES
18 DRAW
58% WINNING RATE

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Today Soccer Predictions 12/26/2019

A full list of today soccer predictions 12/26/2019 is now available at Soccer Bet Buddy home page. Kèo típ cho các trận đấu vào ngày 26/12/2019 đã post trên trang nhà Soccer Bet Buddy.

SOCCER FACTS

Liverpool are undefeated in their last 34 matches (Premier League).

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 11 of Aston Villa‘s last 13 games (Premier League).

TODAY SOCCER PREDICTIONS 12/26/2019
Tottenham Hotspur7:30Brighton & Hove AlbionTottenham Hotspur (-0.5)
AFC Bournemouth10:00ArsenalArsenal (-0.5)
Aston Villa10:00Norwich CityOver 2.5
Chelsea10:00SouthamptonChelsea (-1.0)
Crystal Palace10:00West Ham UnitedUnder 2.5
TODAY BEST 1X2 ODDS
Team1x2
MC Oran
MJ Arzew
1.012656
Glasgow Rangers
Kilmarnock
1.169.226
Paradou AC
FCB Bir El Arch
1.091026
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
1.23715
Connah’s Quay
Airbus UK
1.21715
ASO Chlef
Beni Douala
1.157.615
Nippon Sport Science University W
Daito Bunka University W
1.1913
WA Boufarik
USM Oran
1.216.612.5
Stourbridge
Redditch Utd
1.265.811
AS Khroub
JS Bordj Menaiel
1.3511
TOP HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 12/18/2019
4 WINS
4 LOSSES
4 DRAW
50% WINNING RATE

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